Badenoch Takes the Lead

Kemi Badenoch is rapidly emerging as a frontrunner in the race to replace Rishi Sunak as Conservative Party leader, based on a new poll of party members. The latest survey indicates that if she reaches the final round, she is likely to outperform her main contenders.

A YouGov poll, released on Friday, shows Badenoch leading over prominent candidates James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick, Tom Tugendhat, Dame Priti Patel, and Mel Stride in head-to-head contests. Conducted between August 6 and August 15, the survey polled 903 Conservative members. When asked about a potential runoff between Badenoch and Cleverly, 47% supported Badenoch, compared to 38% for Cleverly.

Badenoch's lead extends to other contenders as well. She outpaced Jenrick with a margin of 48% to 33%, Tugendhat by 49% to 31%, Dame Priti by 55% to 26%, and Stride by an impressive 61% to 14%.

Conservative MPs are set to narrow down the list of leadership candidates through a series of votes scheduled for September and October. The final two candidates will then face a party-wide ballot, with the new leader expected to be announced by November 2.

When party members were asked to choose their top candidate, 24% picked Badenoch as their first choice. Tugendhat followed with 16%, while Cleverly garnered 14%. Jenrick received 12% of the vote, Dame Priti had 11%, and Stride lagged behind with just 2%.

However, a separate Techne poll conducted earlier in August told a different story. This survey, commissioned by Cleverly’s campaign and conducted between August 2 and August 12, polled 805 Conservative members and placed Cleverly in the lead with 26% support. Dame Priti followed with 20%, while Badenoch placed third with 14%, Tugendhat took fourth with 11%, Jenrick came fifth with 10%, and Stride finished last with 4%.

Despite these contrasting results, Badenoch's campaign remains optimistic. As one insider commented, “The numbers clearly reflect strong support for Kemi across the party.”