Surprising Poll Results

The SNP's support has fallen by 10% in a recent Ipsos Scottish Political Monitor poll, signaling a significant shift in the Scottish political landscape. Additionally, First Minister Humza Yousaf received a negative satisfaction rating following Nicola Sturgeon's resignation.

Key Findings

SNP's support dropped to 41%, a 10% decrease from December. Still dominant in Scotland, SNP is projected to win 44 seats in the next Westminster election, while Scottish Labour and Tories are expected to gain 9 and 3 seats respectively.

Comparison to Previous Elections

In the 2019 UK election, the SNP received 45% of the vote, with the Tories at 25% and Labour at 19%. This demonstrates a slight decrease in support for the SNP since then.

Satisfaction Ratings

Anas Sarwar, the leader of Scottish Labour, received a positive net satisfaction rating, with 40% satisfied with his performance, 33% dissatisfied, and 27% unsure. However, Humza Yousaf, the current First Minister, received a net satisfaction rating of minus 9. The survey revealed that 44% of respondents were dissatisfied, compared to 35% who were satisfied. In the previous December poll, Nicola Sturgeon had a positive rating of +9.

Recent Challenges for SNP

Following Nicola Sturgeon's resignation, the SNP has encountered significant turmoil, including a police investigation into party finances and the arrest of her husband and former chief executive, Peter Murrell, and former treasurer Colin Beattie. Both individuals were released without charge pending further investigation.

Shift in Attitudes

The Ipsos poll indicates a noticeable shift in attitude towards independence, with some former Yes voters considering backing other parties instead of the SNP. Currently, support for independence stands at 53%, while 47% are against it, representing a slight drop of three percentage points for the Yes campaign.

Comparison to YouGov Poll

The Ipsos poll provides a more encouraging message for the SNP compared to a YouGov poll published on the same day. According to the YouGov poll, Labour could potentially gain almost two dozen seats from the nationalists in the Westminster election, with the SNP projected to win 27 seats compared to the 48 seats won in 2019.